Financials · CIK 0000354190

AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.

Little or no relationship

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. showed little relationship between MD&A tone and quarterly net income.

Relationship strength (, primary)

-0.17

Sample

15 quarterly observations

More established sample

Multiple-testing check

Does not remain notable after adjusting for hundreds of tests. Why?

Pearson (secondary): -0.11 Why show both?

The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast. Limitations

Tone vs earnings change

Each dot represents one 10-Q filing. Points farther right have more positive MD&A tone. Points higher on the chart had stronger year-over-year net income growth, after extreme percent changes are capped. Upper-right and lower-left points indicate tone and earnings moving in the same direction. How to read this chart

Direction agreement

Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in all 3 comparable quarters.

3 / 3 direction agreement

How is agreement calculated?

Statistical details (Pearson, p-values, q, confidence interval)

Spearman ρ (exact)	-0.175 (p=0.533)
Pearson r	-0.114 (p=0.686)
95% CI (Pearson)	[-0.59, 0.42]
FDR q	0.812
Sample size (n)	15 · More established sample
Agreement	3 / 3 (3 / 3)

Revenue analysis (secondary metric)

Secondary to net income because revenue concepts are less comparable across some industries.

Revenue comparison not used

Revenue comparison is not used for this industry because companies report revenue-like concepts differently.

Why?

Annual 10-K analysis (secondary analysis)

Annual samples are shorter and are not mixed into the default quarterly board.

Relationship

Strong positive

Spearman

0.80

Pearson

0.82

Sample

5 annual observations

Filing history

Tone shown to three decimals so small nonzero values stay visible.

Quarterly (10-Q)

Date	Form	Tone	Net income YoY	Revenue YoY
Aug 5, 2026	10-Q	-0.016	-11.4%	n/a
May 7, 2026	10-Q	+0.007	+16.7%	n/a
Nov 10, 2025	10-Q	-0.013	-12.8%	n/a
Aug 1, 2025	10-Q	-0.000	+29.1%	n/a
May 2, 2025	10-Q	+0.073	+15.8%	n/a
Oct 29, 2024	10-Q	-0.006	+11.4%	n/a
Jul 26, 2024	10-Q	-0.022	+20.9%	n/a
May 1, 2024	10-Q	+0.036	+25.1%	n/a
Oct 27, 2023	10-Q	+0.058	+9.7%	n/a
Aug 4, 2023	10-Q	+0.041	-17.5%	n/a
May 8, 2023	10-Q	+0.054	+10.9%	n/a
Nov 2, 2022	10-Q	-0.004	+13.6%	n/a
Aug 3, 2022	10-Q	-0.002	+49.4%	n/a
May 6, 2022	10-Q	+0.033	+14.8%	n/a
Oct 29, 2021	10-Q	-0.032	+27.5%	n/a

Annual (10-K)

Date	Form	Tone	Net income YoY	Revenue YoY
Feb 17, 2026	10-K	-0.207	+2.1%	n/a
Feb 18, 2025	10-K	-0.145	+50.9%	n/a
Feb 9, 2024	10-K	-0.199	-13.0%	n/a
Feb 10, 2023	10-K	-0.138	+22.9%	n/a
Feb 18, 2022	10-K	-0.170	+10.7%	n/a