edgar-sentiment
Accounting · SEC filings · language analysis

Does the tone match the numbers?

This project tests whether the tone of management's MD&A moves with changes in financial performance across 9,697 S&P 500 10-K and 10-Q filings.

9,697
SEC filings analyzed
440
Companies in the main comparison
35
Relationships remained statistically notable after adjusting for hundreds of tests
Why only 35?

The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast.

How the analysis works

From the filing text to the comparison with reported results.

  1. SEC filingCompany reports results
  2. MD&AManagement explains what happened
  3. Tone scoreEstimate how positive or negative the language is
  4. Financial resultsMatch the reported numbers for the same period
  5. ComparisonSee whether tone and performance moved together

View methodology

What did the analysis find?

Across the S&P 500, most companies showed weak-to-moderate relationships between management tone and quarterly earnings. A smaller group showed stronger and more consistent patterns.

Most relationships are modest

Tone and earnings usually do not move in tight lockstep.

35 of 440 ranking-eligible relationships remain after multiple-testing adjustment

After adjusting for hundreds of company tests, a minority remain statistically notable. That is not the same as proof. Why that matters

Company results vary widely

Positive, negative, high-agreement, and near-zero examples all appear in the data.

Which companies illustrate the result?

A few educational examples: stronger relationships, results that do not survive the multiple-testing adjustment, and near-zero cases.

AAPL
Apple Inc.
Survives multiple-testing adjustment
Strong positive

Management tone tended to become more positive when quarterly earnings improved.

ADI
Analog Devices
Survives multiple-testing adjustment
Strong positive

One of the stronger positive relationships in the published set.

AMZN
Amazon
Moderate negative

Showed a moderate negative relationship, but the result did not survive the multiple-testing adjustment.

NVDA
Nvidia
Moderate positive

Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in all 13 comparable quarters.

ABBV
AbbVie
Little or no relationship

Showed little relationship between MD&A tone and quarterly net income.

Company rankings

Default board: quarterly MD&A tone vs net income, at least 8 observations, relationship strength first.

View all 440 companies

Strongest positive

Quarterly tone vs net income · at least 8 observations · relationship strength first.

CompanyRelationshipSample

Strongest negative

Quarterly tone vs net income · at least 8 observations · relationship strength first.

CompanyRelationshipSample

Industry snapshots

A few contrasts between stronger and flatter industry patterns.

See industry results

How careful is the method?

Period-matched filings, rank-based relationship measures, direction agreement, sample-size rules, and a multiple-testing adjustment, with limitations stated plainly.

All companies on the main board

Does quarterly management tone tend to move with quarterly net income? Why sample size matters

440 companies shown

CompanyIndustryRelationshipSampleStatus