Robinhood Markets showed little relationship between MD&A tone and quarterly net income.
Does not remain notable after adjusting for hundreds of tests. Why?
The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast. Limitations
Each dot represents one 10-Q filing. Points farther right have more positive MD&A tone. Points higher on the chart had stronger year-over-year net income growth, after extreme percent changes are capped. Upper-right and lower-left points indicate tone and earnings moving in the same direction. How to read this chart
Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in 8 of 11 comparable quarters.
8 / 11 direction agreement
How is agreement calculated?| Spearman ρ (exact) | 0.150 (p=0.594) |
|---|---|
| Pearson r | 0.052 (p=0.853) |
| 95% CI (Pearson) | [-0.47, 0.55] |
| FDR q | 0.916 |
| Sample size (n) | 15 · More established sample |
| Agreement | 8 / 11 (8 / 11) |
Secondary to net income because revenue concepts are less comparable across some industries.
Revenue comparison is not used for this industry because companies report revenue-like concepts differently.
Why?Annual samples are shorter and are not mixed into the default quarterly board.
Tone shown to three decimals so small nonzero values stay visible.
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.196 | +45.3% | n/a |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.241 | +4.2% | n/a |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.209 | +270.7% | n/a |
| Jul 31, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.167 | +105.3% | n/a |
| May 1, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.199 | +114.0% | n/a |
| Oct 31, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.120 | +276.5% | n/a |
| Aug 8, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.084 | +652.0% | n/a |
| May 8, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.096 | +130.7% | n/a |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.024 | +51.4% | n/a |
| Aug 3, 2023 | 10-Q | -0.029 | +108.5% | n/a |
| May 10, 2023 | 10-Q | -0.017 | -30.4% | n/a |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 10-Q | -0.164 | +86.7% | n/a |
| Aug 3, 2022 | 10-Q | -0.146 | +41.2% | n/a |
| May 6, 2022 | 10-Q | -0.033 | +72.9% | n/a |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 10-Q | +0.119 | -12250.6% | n/a |
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2026 | 10-K | +0.160 | +33.5% | n/a |
| Feb 18, 2025 | 10-K | +0.026 | +360.8% | n/a |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 10-K | -0.020 | +47.4% | n/a |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 10-K | -0.095 | +72.1% | n/a |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 10-K | +0.096 | n/a | n/a |