Ares Management showed a negative relationship between management tone and quarterly net income.
Does not remain notable after adjusting for hundreds of tests. Why?
The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast. Limitations
Each dot represents one 10-Q filing. Points farther right have more positive MD&A tone. Points higher on the chart had stronger year-over-year net income growth, after extreme percent changes are capped. Upper-right and lower-left points indicate tone and earnings moving in the same direction. How to read this chart
Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in 3 of 6 comparable quarters.
3 / 6 direction agreement
How is agreement calculated?| Spearman ρ (exact) | -0.333 (p=0.381) |
|---|---|
| Pearson r | -0.312 (p=0.414) |
| 95% CI (Pearson) | [-0.81, 0.44] |
| FDR q | 0.659 |
| Sample size (n) | 9 · Usable sample |
| Agreement | 3 / 6 (3 / 6) |
Secondary to net income because revenue concepts are less comparable across some industries.
Revenue comparison is not used for this industry because companies report revenue-like concepts differently.
Why?Annual samples are shorter and are not mixed into the default quarterly board.
Tone shown to three decimals so small nonzero values stay visible.
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.036 | +9.9% | n/a |
| May 8, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.027 | +202.3% | n/a |
| Nov 6, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.060 | +143.9% | n/a |
| Aug 8, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.056 | +44.4% | n/a |
| May 12, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.049 | -35.4% | n/a |
| Nov 8, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.116 | n/a | n/a |
| Aug 7, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.046 | n/a | n/a |
| May 9, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.011 | n/a | n/a |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.060 | n/a | n/a |
| Aug 3, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.060 | n/a | n/a |
| May 8, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.067 | n/a | n/a |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.076 | -142.0% | n/a |
| Aug 5, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.102 | -72.0% | n/a |
| May 9, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.088 | -21.4% | n/a |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 10-Q | +0.133 | +78.2% | n/a |
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 10-K | -0.089 | +13.7% | n/a |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 10-K | -0.050 | -2.2% | n/a |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 10-K | -0.141 | +183.1% | n/a |
| Feb 24, 2023 | 10-K | -0.087 | -59.0% | n/a |
| Feb 28, 2022 | 10-K | -0.054 | +168.7% | n/a |