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Amazon showed a negative relationship between management tone and quarterly net income.
Does not remain notable after adjusting for hundreds of tests. Why?
The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast. Limitations
Each dot represents one 10-Q filing. Points farther right have more positive MD&A tone. Points higher on the chart had stronger year-over-year net income growth, after extreme percent changes are capped. Upper-right and lower-left points indicate tone and earnings moving in the same direction. How to read this chart
Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in 4 of 15 comparable quarters.
4 / 15 direction agreement
How is agreement calculated?| Spearman ρ (exact) | -0.525 (p=0.044) |
|---|---|
| Pearson r | -0.614 (p=0.015) |
| 95% CI (Pearson) | [-0.86, -0.15] |
| FDR q | 0.103 |
| Sample size (n) | 15 · More established sample |
| Agreement | 4 / 15 (4 / 15) |
Secondary to net income because revenue concepts are less comparable across some industries.
Annual samples are shorter and are not mixed into the default quarterly board.
Tone shown to three decimals so small nonzero values stay visible.
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | 10-Q | -0.334 | +244.9% | +19.6% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 10-Q | -0.315 | +76.7% | +16.6% |
| Oct 31, 2025 | 10-Q | -0.309 | +38.2% | +13.4% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 10-Q | -0.316 | +34.7% | +13.3% |
| May 2, 2025 | 10-Q | -0.331 | +64.2% | +8.6% |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 10-Q | -0.336 | +55.2% | +11.0% |
| Aug 2, 2024 | 10-Q | -0.328 | +99.8% | +10.1% |
| May 1, 2024 | 10-Q | -0.327 | +228.8% | +12.5% |
| Oct 27, 2023 | 10-Q | -0.340 | +244.0% | +12.6% |
| Aug 4, 2023 | 10-Q | -0.353 | +432.8% | +10.8% |
| Apr 28, 2023 | 10-Q | -0.348 | +182.5% | +9.4% |
| Oct 28, 2022 | 10-Q | -0.325 | -9.0% | +14.7% |
| Jul 29, 2022 | 10-Q | -0.329 | -126.1% | +7.2% |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 10-Q | -0.328 | -147.4% | +7.3% |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 10-Q | -0.315 | -50.2% | +15.3% |
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2026 | 10-K | -0.045 | +31.1% | +12.4% |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 10-K | -0.053 | +94.7% | +11.0% |
| Feb 2, 2024 | 10-K | -0.089 | +1217.7% | +11.8% |
| Feb 3, 2023 | 10-K | -0.093 | -108.2% | +9.4% |
| Feb 4, 2022 | 10-K | -0.106 | +56.4% | +21.7% |