Visa Inc. showed little relationship between MD&A tone and quarterly net income.
Does not remain notable after adjusting for hundreds of tests. Why?
The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast. Limitations
Each dot represents one 10-Q filing. Points farther right have more positive MD&A tone. Points higher on the chart had stronger year-over-year net income growth, after extreme percent changes are capped. Upper-right and lower-left points indicate tone and earnings moving in the same direction. How to read this chart
Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in 7 of 8 comparable quarters.
7 / 8 direction agreement
How is agreement calculated?| Spearman ρ (exact) | -0.007 (p=0.982) |
|---|---|
| Pearson r | 0.030 (p=0.919) |
| 95% CI (Pearson) | [-0.51, 0.55] |
| FDR q | 0.946 |
| Sample size (n) | 14 · More established sample |
| Agreement | 7 / 8 (7 / 8) |
Secondary to net income because revenue concepts are less comparable across some industries.
Revenue comparison is not used for this industry because companies report revenue-like concepts differently.
Why?Annual samples are shorter and are not mixed into the default quarterly board.
Tone shown to three decimals so small nonzero values stay visible.
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.093 | n/a | n/a |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.063 | +31.5% | n/a |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.054 | +14.3% | n/a |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.052 | +8.2% | n/a |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.069 | -1.8% | n/a |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.051 | +4.7% | n/a |
| Jul 24, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.060 | +17.2% | n/a |
| Apr 24, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.062 | +9.5% | n/a |
| Jan 26, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.025 | +17.0% | n/a |
| Jul 26, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.030 | +21.8% | n/a |
| Apr 27, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.013 | +16.7% | n/a |
| Jan 27, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.023 | +5.6% | n/a |
| Jul 28, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.041 | +32.5% | n/a |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 10-Q | -0.003 | +20.5% | n/a |
| Jan 28, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.107 | +26.6% | n/a |
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 10-K | +0.034 | +1.6% | n/a |
| Nov 13, 2024 | 10-K | +0.049 | +14.3% | n/a |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 10-K | -0.005 | +15.5% | n/a |
| Nov 16, 2022 | 10-K | +0.003 | +21.5% | n/a |
| Nov 18, 2021 | 10-K | -0.007 | +13.3% | n/a |