Delta Air Lines showed a negative relationship between management tone and quarterly net income.
Does not remain notable after adjusting for hundreds of tests. Why?
The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast. Limitations
Each dot represents one 10-Q filing. Points farther right have more positive MD&A tone. Points higher on the chart had stronger year-over-year net income growth, after extreme percent changes are capped. Upper-right and lower-left points indicate tone and earnings moving in the same direction. How to read this chart
Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in 10 of 14 comparable quarters.
10 / 14 direction agreement
How is agreement calculated?| Spearman ρ (exact) | -0.525 (p=0.044) |
|---|---|
| Pearson r | -0.343 (p=0.211) |
| 95% CI (Pearson) | [-0.73, 0.21] |
| FDR q | 0.472 |
| Sample size (n) | 15 · More established sample |
| Agreement | 10 / 14 (10 / 14) |
Secondary to net income because revenue concepts are less comparable across some industries.
Annual samples are shorter and are not mixed into the default quarterly board.
Tone shown to three decimals so small nonzero values stay visible.
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.198 | -24.7% | +18.7% |
| Apr 8, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.170 | -220.4% | +12.9% |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.132 | +11.4% | +6.4% |
| Jul 10, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.089 | +63.2% | -0.1% |
| Apr 9, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.119 | +548.6% | +2.1% |
| Oct 10, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.141 | +14.8% | +1.2% |
| Jul 11, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.216 | -28.6% | +6.9% |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.192 | +110.2% | +7.8% |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.156 | +59.4% | +10.8% |
| Jul 13, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.145 | +148.6% | +12.7% |
| Apr 13, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.237 | +61.4% | +36.5% |
| Oct 13, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.246 | -42.7% | +52.7% |
| Jul 13, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.271 | +12.7% | +94.0% |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.244 | +20.1% | +125.3% |
| Oct 13, 2021 | 10-Q | -0.012 | +122.5% | +199.0% |
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2026 | 10-K | +0.101 | +44.8% | +2.8% |
| Feb 11, 2025 | 10-K | +0.080 | -25.0% | +6.2% |
| Feb 12, 2024 | 10-K | +0.088 | +249.7% | +14.8% |
| Feb 10, 2023 | 10-K | +0.145 | +370.7% | +69.2% |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 10-K | +0.072 | +102.3% | +74.9% |