U.S. Bancorp showed little relationship between MD&A tone and quarterly net income.
Does not remain notable after adjusting for hundreds of tests. Why?
The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast. Limitations
Each dot represents one 10-Q filing. Points farther right have more positive MD&A tone. Points higher on the chart had stronger year-over-year net income growth, after extreme percent changes are capped. Upper-right and lower-left points indicate tone and earnings moving in the same direction. How to read this chart
Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in 1 of 3 comparable quarters.
1 / 3 direction agreement
How is agreement calculated?| Spearman ρ (exact) | -0.077 (p=0.794) |
|---|---|
| Pearson r | -0.214 (p=0.463) |
| 95% CI (Pearson) | [-0.67, 0.36] |
| FDR q | 0.675 |
| Sample size (n) | 14 · More established sample |
| Agreement | 1 / 3 (1 / 3) |
Secondary to net income because revenue concepts are less comparable across some industries.
Revenue comparison is not used for this industry because companies report revenue-like concepts differently.
Why?Annual samples are shorter and are not mixed into the default quarterly board.
Tone shown to three decimals so small nonzero values stay visible.
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.052 | +19.9% | n/a |
| May 4, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.030 | +13.8% | n/a |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.021 | +16.7% | n/a |
| Aug 7, 2025 | 10-Q | -0.050 | +13.2% | n/a |
| May 6, 2025 | 10-Q | -0.031 | +29.6% | n/a |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 10-Q | -0.026 | +12.5% | n/a |
| Aug 6, 2024 | 10-Q | -0.112 | +17.8% | n/a |
| May 1, 2024 | 10-Q | -0.041 | -22.3% | n/a |
| Nov 1, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.041 | -15.9% | n/a |
| Aug 7, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.041 | -11.1% | n/a |
| May 8, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.007 | +9.1% | n/a |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.004 | -10.7% | n/a |
| Aug 4, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.004 | -22.8% | n/a |
| May 3, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.004 | -31.7% | n/a |
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2026 | 10-K | -0.010 | +20.2% | n/a |
| Feb 21, 2025 | 10-K | -0.009 | +16.0% | n/a |
| Feb 20, 2024 | 10-K | -0.010 | -6.8% | n/a |
| Feb 27, 2023 | 10-K | -0.003 | -26.8% | n/a |
| Feb 22, 2022 | 10-K | -0.005 | +60.6% | n/a |