Fastenal's management tone tended to become more positive when quarterly net income improved. This relationship remained statistically notable after the multiple-testing adjustment.
The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast. Limitations
Each dot represents one 10-Q filing. Points farther right have more positive MD&A tone. Points higher on the chart had stronger year-over-year net income growth, after extreme percent changes are capped. Upper-right and lower-left points indicate tone and earnings moving in the same direction. How to read this chart
Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in 10 of 11 comparable quarters.
10 / 11 direction agreement
How is agreement calculated?| Spearman ρ (exact) | 0.839 (p=9.14e-5) |
|---|---|
| Pearson r | 0.866 (p=3.06e-5) |
| 95% CI (Pearson) | [0.63, 0.95] |
| FDR q | 0.002 |
| Sample size (n) | 15 · More established sample |
| Agreement | 10 / 11 (10 / 11) |
Secondary to net income because revenue concepts are less comparable across some industries.
Annual samples are shorter and are not mixed into the default quarterly board.
Tone shown to three decimals so small nonzero values stay visible.
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.132 | +15.9% | +14.7% |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.121 | +13.8% | +12.4% |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.104 | +12.5% | +11.7% |
| Jul 17, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.135 | +12.8% | +8.6% |
| Apr 16, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.049 | +0.3% | +3.4% |
| Oct 16, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.068 | +0.9% | +3.5% |
| Jul 17, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.076 | -1.8% | +1.8% |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.116 | +0.9% | +1.9% |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.049 | +3.8% | +2.4% |
| Jul 18, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.078 | +3.8% | +5.9% |
| Apr 18, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.074 | +9.5% | +9.1% |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.168 | +16.9% | +16.0% |
| Jul 18, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.158 | +19.8% | +18.0% |
| Apr 18, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.227 | +28.0% | +20.3% |
| Oct 15, 2021 | 10-Q | +0.151 | +9.9% | +10.0% |
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2026 | 10-K | +0.224 | +9.4% | +8.7% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 10-K | +0.092 | -0.4% | +2.7% |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 10-K | +0.112 | +6.3% | +5.2% |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 10-K | +0.137 | +17.5% | +16.1% |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 10-K | +0.094 | +7.7% | +6.4% |