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Carvana showed little relationship between MD&A tone and quarterly net income.
Does not remain notable after adjusting for hundreds of tests. Why?
The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast. Limitations
Each dot represents one 10-Q filing. Points farther right have more positive MD&A tone. Points higher on the chart had stronger year-over-year net income growth, after extreme percent changes are capped. Upper-right and lower-left points indicate tone and earnings moving in the same direction. How to read this chart
Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in 10 of 15 comparable quarters.
10 / 15 direction agreement
How is agreement calculated?| Spearman ρ (exact) | 0.140 (p=0.619) |
|---|---|
| Pearson r | 0.078 (p=0.782) |
| 95% CI (Pearson) | [-0.45, 0.57] |
| FDR q | 0.880 |
| Sample size (n) | 15 · More established sample |
| Agreement | 10 / 15 (10 / 15) |
Secondary to net income because revenue concepts are less comparable across some industries.
Annual samples are shorter and are not mixed into the default quarterly board.
Tone shown to three decimals so small nonzero values stay visible.
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.165 | +69.4% | +52.4% |
| Apr 29, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.159 | +15.7% | +52.0% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.172 | +77.6% | +54.5% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.216 | +916.7% | +41.9% |
| May 7, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.188 | +671.4% | +38.3% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.208 | -89.1% | +31.8% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.173 | +131.0% | +14.9% |
| May 1, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.179 | +117.5% | +17.5% |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.155 | +376.3% | -18.1% |
| Jul 19, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.144 | +75.6% | -23.6% |
| May 4, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.120 | +38.5% | -25.5% |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.121 | -784.4% | -2.7% |
| Aug 4, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.162 | -1181.8% | +16.4% |
| May 10, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.206 | -622.2% | +55.8% |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 10-Q | +0.263 | -351.7% | +125.4% |
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2026 | 10-K | -0.114 | +570.0% | +48.6% |
| Feb 19, 2025 | 10-K | -0.093 | -53.3% | +26.9% |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 10-K | +0.129 | +128.4% | -20.8% |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 10-K | +0.115 | -1075.6% | +6.2% |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 10-K | +0.267 | +21.1% | +129.4% |