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Microsoft's management tone tended to become more positive when quarterly net income improved.
Does not remain notable after adjusting for hundreds of tests. Why?
The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast. Limitations
Each dot represents one 10-Q filing. Points farther right have more positive MD&A tone. Points higher on the chart had stronger year-over-year net income growth, after extreme percent changes are capped. Upper-right and lower-left points indicate tone and earnings moving in the same direction. How to read this chart
Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in 13 of 15 comparable quarters.
13 / 15 direction agreement
How is agreement calculated?| Spearman ρ (exact) | 0.436 (p=0.104) |
|---|---|
| Pearson r | 0.568 (p=0.027) |
| 95% CI (Pearson) | [0.08, 0.84] |
| FDR q | 0.159 |
| Sample size (n) | 15 · More established sample |
| Agreement | 13 / 15 (13 / 15) |
Secondary to net income because revenue concepts are less comparable across some industries.
Annual samples are shorter and are not mixed into the default quarterly board.
Tone shown to three decimals so small nonzero values stay visible.
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.122 | +23.1% | +18.3% |
| Jan 28, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.214 | +59.5% | +16.7% |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.146 | +12.5% | +18.4% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.166 | +17.7% | +13.3% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.214 | +10.2% | +12.3% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.142 | +10.7% | +16.0% |
| Apr 25, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.185 | +19.9% | +17.0% |
| Jan 30, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.230 | +33.2% | +17.6% |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.185 | +27.0% | +12.8% |
| Apr 25, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.122 | +9.4% | +7.1% |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.054 | -12.5% | +2.0% |
| Oct 25, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.074 | -14.4% | +10.6% |
| Apr 26, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.140 | +8.2% | +18.4% |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.132 | +21.4% | +20.1% |
| Oct 26, 2021 | 10-Q | +0.101 | +47.6% | +22.0% |
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | 10-K | -0.017 | +31.3% | +17.8% |
| Jul 30, 2025 | 10-K | -0.005 | +15.5% | +14.9% |
| Jul 30, 2024 | 10-K | +0.025 | +21.8% | +15.7% |
| Jul 27, 2023 | 10-K | -0.029 | -0.5% | +6.9% |
| Jul 28, 2022 | 10-K | -0.011 | +18.7% | +18.0% |