Financials · CIK 0000004962

AXP American Express

Moderate negative

American Express showed a negative relationship between management tone and quarterly net income.

Relationship strength (, primary)

-0.42

Sample

15 quarterly observations

More established sample

Multiple-testing check

Does not remain notable after adjusting for hundreds of tests. Why?

Pearson (secondary): -0.45 Why show both?

The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast. Limitations

Tone vs earnings change

Each dot represents one 10-Q filing. Points farther right have more positive MD&A tone. Points higher on the chart had stronger year-over-year net income growth, after extreme percent changes are capped. Upper-right and lower-left points indicate tone and earnings moving in the same direction. How to read this chart

Direction agreement

Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in 8 of 11 comparable quarters.

8 / 11 direction agreement

How is agreement calculated?

Statistical details (Pearson, p-values, q, confidence interval)

Spearman ρ (exact)	-0.425 (p=0.114)
Pearson r	-0.450 (p=0.092)
95% CI (Pearson)	[-0.78, 0.08]
FDR q	0.305
Sample size (n)	15 · More established sample
Agreement	8 / 11 (8 / 11)

Revenue analysis (secondary metric)

Secondary to net income because revenue concepts are less comparable across some industries.

Revenue comparison not used

Revenue comparison is not used for this industry because companies report revenue-like concepts differently.

Why?

Annual 10-K analysis (secondary analysis)

Annual samples are shorter and are not mixed into the default quarterly board.

Relationship

Little or no relationship

Spearman

-0.20

Pearson

-0.26

Sample

5 annual observations

Filing history

Tone shown to three decimals so small nonzero values stay visible.

Quarterly (10-Q)

Date	Form	Tone	Net income YoY	Revenue YoY
Jul 24, 2026	10-Q	+0.091	+7.8%	n/a
Apr 23, 2026	10-Q	+0.040	+15.0%	n/a
Oct 17, 2025	10-Q	+0.077	+15.8%	n/a
Jul 18, 2025	10-Q	+0.106	-4.3%	n/a
Apr 18, 2025	10-Q	+0.029	+6.0%	n/a
Oct 18, 2024	10-Q	+0.073	+2.3%	n/a
Jul 19, 2024	10-Q	+0.073	+38.7%	n/a
Apr 19, 2024	10-Q	+0.056	+34.2%	n/a
Oct 20, 2023	10-Q	+0.060	+30.4%	n/a
Jul 25, 2023	10-Q	+0.118	+10.7%	n/a
Apr 21, 2023	10-Q	+0.095	-13.5%	n/a
Oct 21, 2022	10-Q	+0.086	+2.9%	n/a
Jul 22, 2022	10-Q	+0.107	-13.9%	n/a
Apr 22, 2022	10-Q	+0.013	-6.1%	n/a
Oct 22, 2021	10-Q	+0.020	+70.2%	n/a

Annual (10-K)

Date	Form	Tone	Net income YoY	Revenue YoY
Feb 6, 2026	10-K	+0.165	+7.0%	n/a
Feb 7, 2025	10-K	+0.068	+21.0%	n/a
Feb 9, 2024	10-K	+0.127	+11.4%	n/a
Feb 10, 2023	10-K	+0.069	-6.8%	n/a
Feb 11, 2022	10-K	+0.082	+157.1%	n/a