Invesco showed little relationship between MD&A tone and quarterly net income.
Does not remain notable after adjusting for hundreds of tests. Why?
The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast. Limitations
Each dot represents one 10-Q filing. Points farther right have more positive MD&A tone. Points higher on the chart had stronger year-over-year net income growth, after extreme percent changes are capped. Upper-right and lower-left points indicate tone and earnings moving in the same direction. How to read this chart
Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in 3 of 4 comparable quarters.
3 / 4 direction agreement
How is agreement calculated?| Spearman ρ (exact) | 0.036 (p=0.915) |
|---|---|
| Pearson r | 0.316 (p=0.343) |
| 95% CI (Pearson) | [-0.35, 0.77] |
| FDR q | 0.605 |
| Sample size (n) | 11 · More established sample |
| Agreement | 3 / 4 (3 / 4) |
Secondary to net income because revenue concepts are less comparable across some industries.
Revenue comparison is not used for this industry because companies report revenue-like concepts differently.
Why?Annual samples are shorter and are not mixed into the default quarterly board.
Tone shown to three decimals so small nonzero values stay visible.
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | 10-Q | -0.014 | n/a | n/a |
| May 5, 2026 | 10-Q | -0.029 | n/a | n/a |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 10-Q | -0.077 | n/a | n/a |
| Aug 1, 2025 | 10-Q | -0.050 | n/a | n/a |
| Apr 28, 2025 | 10-Q | -0.029 | +20.9% | n/a |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 10-Q | -0.045 | -58.1% | n/a |
| Jul 31, 2024 | 10-Q | -0.095 | 0.0% | n/a |
| May 1, 2024 | 10-Q | -0.044 | -2.4% | n/a |
| Oct 31, 2023 | 10-Q | -0.077 | -25.9% | n/a |
| Aug 2, 2023 | 10-Q | -0.107 | +9.3% | n/a |
| May 3, 2023 | 10-Q | -0.066 | -26.7% | n/a |
| Nov 2, 2022 | 10-Q | -0.096 | -46.3% | n/a |
| Aug 3, 2022 | 10-Q | -0.008 | -67.1% | n/a |
| Apr 29, 2022 | 10-Q | -0.018 | -26.2% | n/a |
| Oct 29, 2021 | 10-Q | +0.037 | +72.2% | n/a |
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | 10-K | -0.115 | n/a | n/a |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 10-K | -0.169 | +261.2% | n/a |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 10-K | -0.118 | -148.8% | n/a |
| Feb 23, 2023 | 10-K | -0.168 | -50.9% | n/a |
| Feb 18, 2022 | 10-K | -0.038 | +165.4% | n/a |