M&T Bank showed little relationship between MD&A tone and quarterly net income.
Does not remain notable after adjusting for hundreds of tests. Why?
The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast. Limitations
Each dot represents one 10-Q filing. Points farther right have more positive MD&A tone. Points higher on the chart had stronger year-over-year net income growth, after extreme percent changes are capped. Upper-right and lower-left points indicate tone and earnings moving in the same direction. How to read this chart
Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in 0 of 4 comparable quarters.
0 / 4 direction agreement
How is agreement calculated?| Spearman ρ (exact) | -0.171 (p=0.541) |
|---|---|
| Pearson r | -0.103 (p=0.714) |
| 95% CI (Pearson) | [-0.58, 0.43] |
| FDR q | 0.831 |
| Sample size (n) | 15 · More established sample |
| Agreement | 0 / 4 (0 / 4) |
Secondary to net income because revenue concepts are less comparable across some industries.
Revenue comparison is not used for this industry because companies report revenue-like concepts differently.
Why?Annual samples are shorter and are not mixed into the default quarterly board.
Tone shown to three decimals so small nonzero values stay visible.
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.047 | +14.2% | n/a |
| May 5, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.003 | +13.7% | n/a |
| Oct 27, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.033 | +9.8% | n/a |
| Aug 4, 2025 | 10-Q | -0.024 | +9.3% | n/a |
| May 5, 2025 | 10-Q | -0.069 | +10.0% | n/a |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 10-Q | -0.012 | +4.5% | n/a |
| Aug 5, 2024 | 10-Q | -0.020 | -24.5% | n/a |
| May 3, 2024 | 10-Q | -0.041 | -24.3% | n/a |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 10-Q | -0.070 | +6.7% | n/a |
| Aug 8, 2023 | 10-Q | -0.049 | +298.6% | n/a |
| May 5, 2023 | 10-Q | -0.051 | +93.7% | n/a |
| Nov 7, 2022 | 10-Q | -0.013 | +30.5% | n/a |
| Aug 5, 2022 | 10-Q | -0.015 | -52.5% | n/a |
| May 5, 2022 | 10-Q | -0.025 | -19.0% | n/a |
| Nov 5, 2021 | 10-Q | -0.376 | +33.1% | n/a |
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2026 | 10-K | -0.045 | +10.2% | n/a |
| Feb 19, 2025 | 10-K | -0.033 | -5.6% | n/a |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 10-K | -0.064 | +37.6% | n/a |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 10-K | -0.091 | +7.2% | n/a |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 10-K | -0.068 | +37.4% | n/a |