Apollo Global Management showed a negative relationship between management tone and quarterly net income.
Does not remain notable after adjusting for hundreds of tests. Why?
The analysis measures a same-filing relationship, not a forecast. Limitations
Each dot represents one 10-Q filing. Points farther right have more positive MD&A tone. Points higher on the chart had stronger year-over-year net income growth, after extreme percent changes are capped. Upper-right and lower-left points indicate tone and earnings moving in the same direction. How to read this chart
Tone and earnings moved in the same direction in 3 of 6 comparable quarters.
3 / 6 direction agreement
How is agreement calculated?| Spearman ρ (exact) | -0.217 (p=0.499) |
|---|---|
| Pearson r | -0.296 (p=0.351) |
| 95% CI (Pearson) | [-0.74, 0.34] |
| FDR q | 0.605 |
| Sample size (n) | 12 · More established sample |
| Agreement | 3 / 6 (3 / 6) |
Secondary to net income because revenue concepts are less comparable across some industries.
Revenue comparison is not used for this industry because companies report revenue-like concepts differently.
Why?Annual samples are shorter and are not mixed into the default quarterly board.
Tone shown to three decimals so small nonzero values stay visible.
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.087 | +116.0% | n/a |
| May 7, 2026 | 10-Q | +0.037 | -531.2% | n/a |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.035 | +114.1% | n/a |
| Aug 7, 2025 | 10-Q | +0.021 | -26.1% | n/a |
| May 7, 2025 | 10-Q | -0.028 | -69.0% | n/a |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.040 | +18.9% | n/a |
| Aug 8, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.071 | +42.4% | n/a |
| May 7, 2024 | 10-Q | +0.124 | +41.3% | n/a |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.029 | +177.9% | n/a |
| Aug 7, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.044 | n/a | n/a |
| May 9, 2023 | 10-Q | +0.008 | n/a | n/a |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.117 | -439.5% | n/a |
| Aug 9, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.108 | -411.7% | n/a |
| May 10, 2022 | 10-Q | +0.108 | -228.1% | n/a |
| Date | Form | Tone | Net income YoY | Revenue YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2026 | 10-K | -0.113 | -23.7% | n/a |
| Feb 24, 2025 | 10-K | +0.061 | -9.3% | n/a |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 10-K | -0.168 | +257.1% | n/a |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 10-K | -0.118 | -278.3% | n/a |